That's the estimate based on long-term observations in Hawaii. We'll know more when Kepler's results are in.

There must be quite a bit of politics and gaming involved when a space mission launches to test something that someone on the ground has been working on for a long time. The person on the ground knows the space mission is coming, and may need to rush their final research to get a paper out before the spacecraft's results are published.

An earlier post talked about how Hubble was helping the Dawn team in their planned approach to Vesta. Here's the movie.

It's hard to think of the Earth as having a changing gravity field, but it does. It turns out that rainfall can affect the local gravity.

Sir Richard Branson drops more than a hint.

Guess who actually had it better in some ways? Better read the article.

I may write more about this later, but one of the remaining roles that would be left for NASA if its share of flights into space decreases is space rescue. It would be expensive, but arguably worth it, to keep a rocket and spacecraft on standby ready to rescue a craft or the inhabitants of a space station. In order to do so well, standardized interfaces are required, and today a website came online specifying just such an interface.

I've spoken with Bob Zubrin many times in the past about launch architectures, and this is a major departure for him. More discussion here.

One of the first things I learned in satellite operations is that most of them aren't designed to be shut down easily. I'm aware of at least two cases where a satellite came back to life after being 'decommissioned,' being a nuisance to others who use the same frequency. The case of Galaxy 15 is unique, in that the ground lost control of the satellite a few months ago, and the company that built it expected the craft to lose earth lock in August. Well, it's still going.

While there's been much discussion on SpaceX's potential as a supplier for the Commercial Crew and Cargo efforts, there are other areas where NASA needs launch services. Given the retirement of the Delta II booster, there's a big hole in relatively cheap launches. NASA and SpaceX moved a little closer today, though I'll note that given the potential payout of the contract ($15B) and cost of a Falcon 9 to geostationary orbit ($56M), it would take about 267 launches to max out the contract.

Update: While I'm still pretty happy with my snarkiness on the 267 launches comment, the launch services are spread among many providers. It'll take a lot fewer of the other companys' launches to max out the contract. Also, it looks like today's press release was more about the source selection statement on the linked web page instead of the award, which happened in September.

Congrats to SpaceShip2! First free flight.

Now, if they can just get an engine working...

Update: video

Halloween is coming. My wife and I take turns staying at home, and this year is mine. When I do that, I usually break out the telescope on the front lawn and let kids (and their parents) glimpse the cosmos. This year, it looks like Jupiter and/or the moon will be on the agenda.

I've been discussing space policy on and off with varying groups of people since February, covering cheap contractors, propellant depots, heavy lift, and many other dimensions. I haven't been able to pull my thoughts together into a coherent presentation so far, but a presentation in November may drive me to do so.

Where to start...

Remember the Dawn Spacecraft, headed to Vesta and Ceres? The mission just got a helping hand from Hubble in refining Vesta's spin axis.

UCF researchers have found another asteroid with water and organics on it. That makes two so far, though it's unclear how many they've surveyed. That info would help form an estimate of the percentages of asteroids with water. By a quick eye look, both 24 Themis and 65 Cybele are in similar orbits, so it's possible that the researchers have found a line where, any asteroids beyond are likely to have water.

Just wrapped up a multi-day meeting at Kennedy Space Center. The last afternoon was spent on a tour of the complex. Got to head out to pad 39A, where Discovery is undergoing final preps for launch in a couple weeks. Didn't have a big camera with me, but that's what cell phones are for nowadays.

Visitors centers focusing on past achievements always give me mixed feelings. I may write about it more later.